In this report, I discuss the Safest countries to travel if World War 3 breaks out.
I am not suggesting where you should be traveling while the war in Eastern Europe continues, but I will share where I will be avoiding if things escalate.
I have spent months touring around Eastern Europe and I have enjoyed the people I have met along the way.
I firmly believe in democracy. I believe people should be allowed to elect their leaders. And their neighboring countries should not attack them. I like how the world has condemned the aggressor in this war.
But this channel is a travel channel. So how does this war affect my travel decisions? I will be 62 in a few months. At my age, I would not enter a war zone in a foreign country for any reason.
Youtube tells me the demographics of my audience. Most of you are men and women in the last few decades of your life. You come to this channel because you want ideas about where to spend your last few decades on your available budget.
For me, my travels never include war zones.
I left the USA in 2007 and I have lived in or visited 67 countries over the last 15+ Years. I have published over 100 reports about my favorite places along with tricks and tips about how to retire cheap overseas.
I will show you photos I took of some of my favorite countries as you listen. I have spent several months traveling through Eastern Europe and it is one of my favorite places in the world. Much of Eastern Europe surrendered fairly quickly during previous wars, so it has some of the oldest, best-preserved, beautiful architecture in all of Europe.
But all of that could change quickly if this war continues. This war could escalate in a number of different ways over the coming weeks and months. Watching various experts over the last 10 days, I have heard an array of escalations that may occur before this all ends.
I will describe several potential escalations and then explain what part of the world I would feel safer watching things unfold.
War Escalations and Travel Effects
Threat Level 1: I would avoid the following places if I believed these two things: (1) Russia would stay in Ukraine and not spill their aggression over into any of the surrounding countries, (2) Russia would threaten but not use any chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons during the war. But I will discuss higher-level threat levels as I continue.
Travel Affects of Threat Level 1: I would stay out of Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. I would also stay out of countries on Ukraine’s borders unless I was going there to help with humanitarian efforts for refugees and wounded soldiers being evacuated from Ukraine. The surrounding countries where humanitarian efforts are needed for refugees include Moldova, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland.
Threat Level 2: Some analysts worry that if Russia continues to be frustrated by their military incompetence in Ukraine they will attack civilians with even more lethal weapons. Russia has tactical and strategic nukes, chemical weapons, and biological weapons.
Russia has been saying that Ukraine has chemical weapons. Nato does not believe Ukraine has chemical weapons. Nato believes Russia is saying Ukraine has chemical weapons as a pretext for what Russia intends to do next. Just like when Russia said they were attacking Ukraine to kill Nazis even though the president of Ukraine is Jewish.
Before explaining how threat level 2 would affect my travel plans, I want to explain the difference between tactical nukes versus strategic nukes, and chemical weapons versus biological weapons.
Strategic Nukes are large-scale nuclear warheads that can take out entire cities. Strategic nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles were created for nuclear war deterrence purposes. Firing a strategic nuclear missile at another nuclear superpower would cause them to fire many nukes back at you. This promise of mutually assured destruction has deterred the superpowers from going to war since the end of World War II.
Tactical nukes are much smaller weapons intended to destroy enemy targets in a specific area while causing less widespread destruction and less radioactive fallout. Chemical weapons cause immediate intentional death or harm based upon their toxic properties. Biological weapons are slower spreading deadly diseases such as anthrax or smallpox intended to infect an entire population before the first symptoms appear.
I define this threat level 2 as: (1) Russia begins using chemical weapons only in Ukraine, and (2) Russia does not use biological weapons, nuclear tactical weapons, or strategic nuclear weapons. Here is how threat level 2 would affect my travel plans.
Travel Effects of Threat Level 2: If this war escalates to threat level 2, I would get further away from the violence. The geographical spillover of chemical weapons into neighboring countries is not very unlikely.
But it would serve as more evidence that Russia is not going to pay any attention to international rules of engagement, and would tell me that Russia may be willing to escalate the hostilities to an even greater extent.
So a threat level 2, I would stay out of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, and Poland, but I would also stay out of Bulgaria, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Finland.
I don’t really think the danger level would be high in all of these additional countries, but I would not want to be stuck near the war once I understood that Russia is willing to escalate with very little notice.
Threat Level 3: Some analysts worry that Russia will escalate to tactical nuclear weapons if they keep getting embarrassed by Ukraine. The USA spends more money on the military than any country in the world, but Russia spends a higher percentage of its GDP on the military than the USA.
So, Russia’s military frustrations in Ukraine may eventually lead to even more brutality against the unarmed Ukrainian population. Once there is an international consensus that Russia’s leaders will be tried for war crimes against humanity, there will be little reason for them to be moderate in their brutality.
I define threat level 3 as: (1) Russia begins using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, (2) while simultaneously warning NATO countries that Russia will soon use nuclear weapons against any NATO member countries that continue to supply Ukraine with conventional weapons.
Here is how threat level 3 would affect my travel plans.
Travel Effects of Threat Level 3: I would exit any Nato member country in Europe. The Nato member countries in Europe currently include Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom. I would also exit any country that was also a member of the former Soviet Union.
Threat Level 4: Some analysts worry that once Russia starts using tactical nuclear weapons inside Ukraine, and if they continued to be embarrassed by the international community for their crimes against humanity, they would have little to lose by escalating to an unthinkable level.
I define threat level 4 as: (1) when Russia decides to escalate the war to any country outside of Ukraine, no matter what weapons they choose to use, that is likely to be the beginning of World War 3.
Travel Effects of Threat Level 4: I would limit my travels to more remote countries outside of and a great distance from Europe and North America. I would feel safer in places like SE Asia, the Philippines, South and Central America, New Zealand, along with southern regions of Africa and India.
Those areas are generally not places where intercontinental nuclear missiles would be headed if World War 3 breaks out. In the meantime, I will continue to hope and pray that the world gets through these difficult days without another soul being taken away senselessly.
Thanks for listening to the Safest countries to Travel if World War 3 breaks out.
This is Dan of Vagabond Awake the Youtube channel for Vagabond Buddha.com. The world is your home. What time will you be home for dinner?