Should you wait to travel until the war ends?
If I were sitting in the US now, would I leave during this war?
I left my home country during peacetime 19 years ago. Now I only return for a week or two every other year. The war started when I was already living overseas, so I didn’t have to make this decision. I was already gone.
But some of you are scheduled to go soon, and you may be wondering whether to change your plans.
The way I see it, there are four main ideas that could sway my decision one way or the other.
I would answer two safety questions first, then two practical questions. I’ll start with safety.
One. How big will the war get before it’s all said and done? In other words, how large a geographical area do I believe will get swept up in this war before it ends?
Two. In this predicted geographical area, is there anyone I know personally who is vulnerable (older people and kids) that I would want to help get out of harm’s way?
Question 1: If I believed the theatre for this war would be contained mainly in the Middle East and that China and Russia would not get dragged into the war, then I would not need to stay in my home country, the US. The war would not be conducted on my home soil, where vulnerable people I know personally would need to get out of harm’s way.
Question 2: Since the war is not being fought on my home soil, I would not need to stay home to move anyone out of harm’s way. I would feel free to retire overseas.
But if the war were being fought in or near my home country, I would wait for a time and see how things develop. Would I need anyone out of large cities or away from military targets? Do vulnerable people I know personally have food to eat and clean water? I would stay until the vulnerability passed.
Since my loved ones are not in the theater of war, I would feel comfortable leaving.
The next two questions would be more economic and practical.
Question 3: How bad is the world economy likely to get before the war ends, and how long will it take to get things back to normal?
Question 4: Which countries would I move to, and what countries would I be willing to fly over?
Okay, question 3: How bad will the economy get, and how long will it last? Here is what my reading tells me since the war started. None of this is from mainstream media, right or left.
I never make major life decisions based solely on data from one side or the other. This is from 20 sources that adamantly disagree with one another, so I will not present these ideas as my own.
Imagine you are driving down Route 66 in the US and decide to pull over for a cup of coffee at a 1960s-style diner. You sit down and order a cup of coffee and fries. You notice the guy sitting next to you is reading the newspaper.
Grease from his hands is getting all over the front page of the regional newspaper, which reads, “Straits of Hurmoz still closed, Gas hits $4.00 per Gallon.”
You lean over and ask, “Does it say when the straits will be opened?”
He replies,
“Nobody really knows. The current administration says things will be back online in a few days or a few weeks.”
He continues,
“My son over there in the Navy says the way forward is not so clear. Reopening the strait requires sweeping for mines, while Navy ships are under threat from Iranian drones and missiles.
He says the Navy is half the size it was in the 80s, when it last escorted tankers in the region. The strait can be rendered unpassable by mines, unmanned speedboats, and anti-ship missiles.
Some insurance companies will still insure oil tankers traveling through the Straits of Hormuz, but premiums are now 10 to 15 times higher, which wipes out all the profit on oil tankers.
And oil tanker crews and merchant mariners have the legal right to refuse to sail into war zones. The combination of extremely high insurance costs, fears for crew safety, and wartime crew wages has led to an indefinite, practical economic closure of the Straits.
Even if the Navy starts escorting ships through the straits, only about 10-20% of ships are willing to sail through the war zone, which isn’t enough to protect the global economy.
Plus, the additional costs of the war and fuel costs at home will push inflation higher, which is likely to cause it to rise unless this war ends soon. There doesn’t seem to be an easy way out of this war.”
Okay, back to my thoughts. I don’t do politics on this channel.
I just show people a beautiful new life overseas.
I don’t know how bad things will get. And I suggest you hold onto your wallet tightly if anyone starts telling you they know what and when it is going to happen.
All I know is that the cost of living has been lower overseas since I left the US 19 years ago. It’s when I go home to the US for a visit that things hurt the most.
Now, my past or present results are no guarantee for anyone’s future life. But here is the math that makes sense to me.
I am in Asia right now. And I have spent way more time in Asia over the last 19 years than any other part of the world.
When I sit down for a local-style meal in Asia, I typically spend about $1 to $3 USD per meal in Vietnam. I spend a little more in Thailand and Malaysia, maybe about $2 to $4 USD per local meal.
If those costs for local meals in Asia increase by 50% over the next year (which has never happened to me in 19 years overseas), my meals suddenly cost $1.50 to $4.50 in Vietnam or about $3 to $6 USD in Malaysia or Thailand. These are local restaurants, not tourist or expat restaurants.
But if restaurants in the US< Europe, or Australia are $10 to $20 per meal, if they jump by 50% in one year (which has never happened in my entire life), my meals suddenly cost $15 to $30 USD.
When you start with high numbers, and they jump radically, it hurts way more than if you start with low numbers and they jump radically.
That simple math tells me it is easier to maintain my budget in Asia during this war than it would if I stayed in the US. It is not complicated.
Inflation has always hurt me more when I visited the US than when living overseas.
Rents and other expenses are similar. If $1000 US rents go up 20% in a year, that is $1200 US next year. But if $500 Asian rents go up 20%, that is $600 next year. So it is generally easier for me to survive inflation overseas than in the US.
When high numbers jump radically, it hurts badly. When a low number jumps radically, you may be able to survive it.
But here is the catch. If you stay in western-style accommodations overseas and eat in tourist or expat-style restaurants, they can cost two to three times as much as local-style. So you have to do your exploratory visit overseas before you know whether you can live locally or not.
But for me, no matter how bad the economy gets in the US, I feel like it will still be easier for me overseas.
However, some people think differently. Some say the dollar will drop relative to other currencies. And they may be right. For example, the US dollar is down about 12% against the Euro and down about 10% against the British pound over the last year.
But those are historically strong foreign currencies, and I don’t spend much time in the UK or Europe. I am usually in Asia. In some of the low-cost-of-living places like the Philippines and Vietnam, the dollar has gained ground in the last year.
The dollar is 10% stronger against the Vietnamese Dong and 5% stronger against the Philippine peso.
But the dollar has dropped 5% against the Thai Baht and 10% against the Malaysian Ringgit.
So here is what I would do. If I had been planning to leave my home country at the time the war started 3 weeks ago, and I was almost ready to leave now, I would probably still go.
But if I were in the early stages of planning, and had not yet quit my job in the US, or sold off all of my possessions, I might just sit tight for a few months and see what happens to the World economy.
But I wouldn’t put down deep roots anywhere. I would start in SE Asia and stay where the dollar remains strong. If the dollar loses significant ground where I was staying, I would be willing to slow travel to another country in SE Asia where I could get more bang for my buck.
If the dollar got hammered hard in SE Asia, I would consider my other options whether in Latin America or Eastern Europe.
But I would stay away from anywhere the US State Department says there is a risk of retaliation, such as the Middle East.
Question 4: Which countries would I be willing to stay during the war, and how would the theater of the war affect the airspace I would be willing to fly through?
I would not jump on a jet and fly over the Middle East. If I were in the US or Western Europe, I would fly west even if it costs more. We flew from Latin America to Asia last week. There is no need to fly over the Middle East to get to SE Asia.
Our flight cost $600 per person one way, flying west, connecting through Tokyo before arriving in SE Asia. We found the flight on Skyscanner. But I checked a few days ago, and that same flight ranged from $800 to $1000. Fuel costs have risen since the war started. We booked our flight before the war started.
We will be spending the next year slow-traveling around SE Asia, showing you our favorite parts. We have finished our tour of Latin America for now.
If you are serious about living or retiring overseas, if you do nothing else, make sure you grab a copy of my free eBook before leaving your home country. In the eBook, I share the 10 most important things you must do before you leave your home country.
Now, living in 78 countries in my life, watch this video here to learn my top 15 places in the world to live or retire cheaply in paradise. I would be happy to stay in any of these places during the war.